Global softwood markets are entering a period of tighter supply, with roundwood supply forecast to increase by only about 0.5% annually through 2035, according to the Global Softwood Roundwood Supply Outlook by Håkan Ekström and Glen O’Kelly. Demand for construction timber, packaging and biomass is expected to continue growing faster than supply.
Global softwood roundwood supply in 2025 was close to its 25-year average after falling from its all-time high in 2021. The geography of supply has also changed since 2000, with North American softwood roundwood supply declining by almost 20%, while Europe/Russia and the rest of the world each increased by about 18%.
The US South has the greatest potential for additional softwood roundwood supply. Timber resources are abundant and harvests remain below biological growth, but labor shortages, infrastructure constraints and investment requirements will limit the pace of expansion.
Canada is expected to stabilize and recover modestly after several years of declining harvests, particularly in British Columbia. The recovery is unlikely to restore supply to previous levels.
Europe faces tighter constraints, with many forests already harvested close to sustainable biological limits. Sustainability policies, forest protection and climate-related damage are also restricting further growth. The base scenario points to limited overall change, with declines in Central Europe and the Baltics offset by growth elsewhere, particularly in the Nordic region.
Russia has substantial underutilized softwood resources, but political risk, market-access restrictions, infrastructure limitations and investment requirements are expected to leave much of that potential untapped.
In Latin America and Asia-Pacific, plantation forestry remains competitive, while the softwood plantation area has changed little over the past decade. Investment in hardwood plantations has increased, but investment in softwood plantations has remained broadly unchanged. Productivity gains are expected to produce modest supply growth rather than a major expansion. Japan and New Zealand have lower available supply predominantly because of uneven age-class structures.
Demand for lumber associated with US housing, European construction and China’s property market will support demand for sawlogs. Greater substitution of hardwood species and recycled fiber in pulp and wood-based panels will also affect demand for different softwood log grades.
China could increasingly import lumber rather than logs as Asia-Pacific log supply tightens and Chinese sawmilling costs rise. Climate-related events, including insects, storms, drought and wildfire, could also affect forest growth and salvage harvesting, while changes in international relations could redirect trade flows. Carbon policies are expected to have a more limited effect on commercial softwood supply.
Global softwood supply can grow through 2035, but only modestly. The analysis identifies harvesting, processing and competitive delivery to markets as constraints on the amount of timber that can become available.
The studies form a four-part market report series covering North America; Europe and Russia; Latin America, Asia and Oceania; and the global overview. The series examines future sources of softwood supply and regions where growth is expected to remain constrained.